Pipe Price Forecast for 1405: Iran Market Scenarios

Short answer: Ahantime’s estimate for pipe prices in 1405 is a volatile nominal increase under the base scenario; however, this forecast is not certain. Exchange rates, sheet and billet prices, energy and transportation costs, factory supply, and project-based demand can lead each pipe type along a different path.

Base date: This article was reviewed on ۲ شهریور ۱۴۰۵ and uses the data visible on Ahantime’s pipe price page, updated on ۲۸ مرداد ۱۴۰۵, for price comparison. Market prices change according to type, size, thickness, grade, factory, and delivery conditions.

What is the pipe price forecast for 1405?

Instead of announcing one definite figure for the end of the year, three defensible scenarios can be considered. Under the base scenario, the nominal price of pipe gradually rises along with inflation and exchange-rate fluctuations, but may undergo corrections over short periods. The bullish scenario becomes active in the event of an exchange-rate surge, energy restrictions, or reduced supply. A stable or corrective scenario is also possible if the exchange rate remains stable, supply is sufficient, and construction demand is weak.

These scenarios are not guaranteed percentages. For an actual decision, the price of a product with exactly identical specifications must be compared on two dates; comparing welded pipe with seamless pipe or black pipe with galvanized pipe is not a valid indicator of the market trend.

Baseline pipe price data at Ahantime

On Ahantime’s pipe price page, prices are displayed in tomans per kilogram, and the page’s update date at the time of review was ۱۴۰۵/۰۵/۲۸. The examples below are only intended to show the range and differences between factories; the size and specifications of each row must be checked before the final quotation request.

To view the current figure and details for each factory, visit the daily pipe price page. This data is a snapshot and should be reviewed again when inventory changes or the market is updated.

What factors will determine pipe prices in ۱۴۰۵?

Exchange rate and replacement cost

Currency changes affect raw materials, equipment, parts, packaging, and transportation. Sellers also generally price inventory based on replacement cost; therefore, the market price may move before an official change in the factory price list.

Sheet, coil, and billet prices

Welded pipe depends on sheet or coil, while seamless pipe depends on billet and the production process. Consequently, the price trends of these two groups are not necessarily identical. Thickness, grade, surface quality, testing, and standard also create price differences.

Energy, labor, and transportation

Factory electricity and gas, labor, loading, insurance, and freight

Sample pipe prices in the baseline data for ۱۴۰۵/۰۵/۲۸ (toman per kilogram)

Source: Ahantime pipe price page; date ۱۴۰۵/۰۵/۲۸

Especially for heavy and intercity orders, these factors change the final price. A quoted price without specifying the delivery location is not sufficient for comparison.

Factory supply and delivery time

Maintenance, energy quotas, raw-material restrictions, and the inventory of a specific size can separate a product’s price from the general market trend. When requesting a quotation, obtain the delivery date and actual inventory in writing.

Project-based demand

Water, gas, oil, facilities, and construction projects can increase demand. A project slowdown or liquidity shortage may also persuade a seller to offer a discount to convert inventory into cash.

What effect will the global steel trend have on the pipe market?

In its April ۲۰۲۶ outlook, the World Steel Association estimated global steel demand growth at approximately ۰٫۳ percent for ۲۰۲۶ and ۲٫۲ percent for ۲۰۲۷. This is not a forecast of pipe prices in Iran; it is only a macro signal from the global demand side and should be interpreted alongside the exchange rate, domestic production, and transportation costs.

China’s production, iron ore and coal prices, trade policies, and geopolitical risks can affect the global market. The transmission of this effect to Iran’s market is neither direct nor equal in scale and may occur with a delay.

Forecast for different pipe types in ۱۴۰۵

When is the best time to buy pipe in ۱۴۰۵?

If the project has a definite delivery deadline, waiting for the lowest future price carries high risk. First finalize the technical specifications and consumption quantity, then obtain prices from several suppliers on the same day and under identical delivery conditions. For staged purchasing, secure the short-term requirement and place the next order after monitoring the market; this decision should be coordinated with liquidity and warehouse space.

To estimate weight and control the load quantity, use the **pipe weight calculation tool**. If you are still deciding between two options, send the size, thickness, grade, production type, quantity, and destination details to **request a pipe price quotation**.

Purchasing risk-management checklist

1. Record the price with the date, unit, size, thickness, and delivery conditions.
2. Do not compare welded, seamless, galvanized, and stainless steel pipes in one price basket.
3. Verify the factory, certificate, load weight, and actual inventory before payment.
4. Read the price per kilogram together with the length of each piece, coating, freight, and tax.
5. For time-sensitive projects, have an alternative plan and a budget ceiling.

Summary of the pipe price forecast for ۱۴۰۵

The base scenario is a volatile nominal increase in pipe prices during ۱۴۰۵; however, an exchange-rate surge or supply disruption can activate the bullish scenario, while exchange-rate stability combined with weak demand can activate the corrective scenario. This analysis is not a purchase recommendation or a price guarantee and should be updated with the publication of new data.

Sources and analysis method

• World Steel Association Short Range Outlook, April ۲۰۲۶
• Ahantime daily pipe price data, review date ۱۴۰۵/۰۵/۲۸
• Guide to purchasing and standards for steel pipes