When copper prices move on the London Metal Exchange, that change reaches Iran's domestic market with some delay and via the dollar exchange rate. Understanding this lag creates an opportunity for timing purchases and sales.
News arrives that the price of copper on the London Metal Exchange has surged today. But when you look at the domestic market, the price has not moved yet. This delay is not a flaw; it is an opportunity, if you know how it works.
The Chain That Brings Global News to the Market
The price of copper or aluminum first changes on the London Metal Exchange. But before this change reaches the domestic market price, it must pass through a chain: conversion at the dollar exchange rate, pricing formulas announced by the Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade and the Iran Mercantile Exchange, and then the open market. This chain causes the domestic market’s reaction to usually be seen several days after the movement of LME.
The price change of non-ferrous metals reaches the domestic market with a slight delay and through the dollar.
Two Engines at the Same Time: Global Prices and the Dollar
The subtle point is that sometimes the movement of the domestic market is related more to the dollar than to the metal price itself. If the global price of copper remains stable but the dollar surges, the domestic price rises. Conversely, if the global price falls but the dollar rises at the same time, the two effects may cancel each other out. That is why both must be viewed together, not separately.
| Global situation | Dollar situation | Likely effect on domestic price |
|---|---|---|
| Increase in LME | Stable | Increase with a delay of several days |
| Stable | Dollar surge | Relatively rapid increase |
| Decrease in LME | Dollar surge | Possibility of the two effects canceling each other out |
| Decrease in LME | Stable | Decrease with a delay |
How to Turn the Delay into an Opportunity
If you monitor LME and the dollar at the same time, you can predict the likely direction of the domestic price several days earlier than someone who only watches the local market. These several days are precisely the opportunity that can make the difference between making a timely purchase and buying at a loss.
In non-ferrous metals, global information is a real competitive advantage; whoever follows it is almost always one step ahead of the local market.
Frequently Asked Questions
چرا تغییر قیمت جهانی با تأخیر به بازار داخلی می‌رسد؟
چون قیمت داخلی از فرمول قیمت جهانی، نرخ دلار و اعلام‌های رسمی می‌گذرد؛ این زنجیره باعث می‌شود واکنش بازار داخلی چند روز بعد از تغییر LME دیده شود.
نقش دلار در این تأخیر چیست؟
اگر قیمت جهانی ثابت بماند اما دلار جهش کند، قیمت داخلی بالا می‌رود؛ و برعکس. یعنی گاهی حرکت بازار داخلی بیشتر به دلار مربوط است تا خودِ قیمت جهانی فلز.
چطور از این تأخیر فرصت بسازیم؟
با رصد هم‌زمان LME و دلار می‌توانید جهت احتمالی قیمت داخلی را چند روز زودتر حدس بزنید و خرید یا فروش را بهتر زمان‌بندی کنید.
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